Table 3 Multivariable logistical regression

Model comparison (LR test)

Model comparison (AICc test)

Model 1: Age, AMH, Embryos

Model 2: Age, Embryos

Model 1: AMH, Embryos

Model 2: Age, Embryos

Age < 35

Variable

Estimate

95% CI

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.806

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.805

β1

Age

1.040

0.9526 to 1.130

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.800

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.800

β2

AMH

1.074

1.005 to 1.163

Preferred model

Model 1

Preferred model

Model 1

β3

Embryos

1.607

1.449 to 1.799

Likelihood ratio

4.495

Model 1 probability

86.42%

P-value

P = 0.0340

Model 2 probability

13.58%

ΔAICc

-3.702

Age 35–37

Variable

Estimate

95% CI

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.807

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.807

β1

Age

0.813

0.679 to 0.969

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.805

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.805

β2

AMH

1.085

1.018 to 1.165

Preferred model

Model 1

Preferred model

Model 1

β3

Embryos

1.729

1.584 to 1.897

Likelihood ratio

6.671

Model 1 probability

66.24%

P-value

P = 0.0098

Model 2 probability

33.76%

ΔAICc

-1.348

Age ≥ 38

Variable

Estimate

95% CI

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.791

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.754

β1

Age

0.710

0.686 to 0.736

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.790

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.790

β2

AMH

1.055

1.020 to 1.093

Preferred model

Model 1

Preferred model

Model 2

β3

Embryos

1.500

1.447 to 1.558

Likelihood ratio

10

Model 1 probability

 < 0.01%

P-value

P = 0.0016

Model 2 probability

 > 99.99%

ΔAICc

382.1

All cycles

Variable

Estimate

95% CI

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.829

Model 1 ROC AUC

0.789

β1

Age

0.790

0.774 to 0.805

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.828

Model 2 ROC AUC

0.828

β2

AMH

1.056

1.027 to 1.087

Preferred model

Model 1

Preferred model

Model 2

β3

Embryos

1.543

1.495 to 1.595

Likelihood ratio

15.97

Model 1 probability

 < 0.01%

P-value

P < 0.0001

Model 2 probability

 > 99.99%

ΔAICc

691.7