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Table 1 Probabilities used in model

From: Preimplantation genetic testing for BRCA gene mutation carriers: a cost effectiveness analysis

Probability

Description

Probability

Range assumed

P1

Probability of male newborn

0.5

 

P2

Probability newborn is BRCA carrier

0.5

 

P3

Probability that a non-carrier will experience ovarian cancer 13

0.0128

0.0005-0.0989

P4

Probability that a non- carrier will experience breast cancer14

0.13

0.11-0.14

P5

Probability that carrier will undergo RRSO 20,21

0.65

0.3-0.75

P6

Probability that BRCA carrier will undergo RRM 25

0.16

0.13-0.3

P7

Reduction in risk of ovarian cancer from RRSO 26,27

0.8

0.8-0.96

P8

Probability that BRCA carrier without RRSO will get OC 28

0.2987

0.24-0.35

P9

Reduction in risk of breast cancer from RRM and RRSO27

0.91

0.78-0.99

P10

Probability that a BRCA carrier without RRM will experience breast cancer 28

0.53

0.44-0.62

P11

Reduction in risk of breast cancer from RRSO 22,24,29

0.0

0.37-0.65

P12

Reduction in breast cancer risk from RRM without RRSO 30

0.91

0.62-0.98

P13

Probability of live newborn with IVF/PGD (1 cycles of fresh ET and 2 cycles of thawed ET)

0.84

0.7-0.9

  1. RRSO Risk reduction salpingo-oophorectomy, RRM Risk reduction mastectomy, IVF In-vitro fertilization, PGD Pre-gestational diagnosis, ET Eembryo transfer